MONITORING
78.7%
00
YEARS
00
MONTHS
00
DAYS
00
HOURS
00
MINUTES
00
SECONDS
UNTIL TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY
PREDICTED: 01/01/2045
Accelerating by ~0 days since tracking began

AI PROGRESS INDICATORS

Model Parameters
15.2T
↑+2.3%
Compute (FLOPS)
4.20×10²⁵
↑+1.8%
Benchmark Score
87.3%
↑+0.5%
AGI Probability
35.0%
↑+0.3%
AI Papers/Day
847
↑+12
Investment ($B)
12B
↑+.1B

AI TIMELINE

✓
1956AI Term Coined
✓
1997Deep Blue beats Kasparov
✓
2011IBM Watson wins Jeopardy
✓
2016AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol
✓
2022ChatGPT Released
✓
2023GPT-4 Launch
✓
2024AI Agents Emerge
2026AGI Prototype?
2030Human-Level AI?
2035Recursive Self-Improvement?
2045SINGULARITY

SCENARIO SELECTOR

WHAT IF?

EXPERT PREDICTIONS

R
Ray Kurzweil
Futurist, Google
2045
"The Singularity is near"
E
Elon Musk
CEO, Tesla/SpaceX
2029
"AGI will be smarter than any human"
D
Demis Hassabis
CEO, DeepMind
~2030
"Within a decade"
G
Geoffrey Hinton
AI Pioneer
5-20 years
"Sooner than expected"
S
Sam Altman
CEO, OpenAI
2027-2030
"AGI is coming fast"
S
Stuart Russell
UC Berkeley
Uncertain
"We must proceed carefully"
🔴NEW: Model achieves 94% on reasoning benchmark - Timeline adjusted -3 months🟡ALERT: Major lab announces compute breakthrough - Acceleration detected🟢UPDATE: AI safety protocols implemented - Timeline stable🔴NEW: AI system passes Turing test in blind study - Timeline adjusted -6 months🟡ALERT: New architecture achieves 10x efficiency - Monitoring impact🟢UPDATE: International AI governance framework adopted🔴NEW: Self-improving code optimization achieved - Timeline adjusted -4 months🟡ALERT: Quantum-AI hybrid systems demonstrated🔴NEW: AI achieves PhD-level research capability - Timeline adjusted -8 months🟢UPDATE: Compute scaling continues as predicted
🔴NEW: Model achieves 94% on reasoning benchmark - Timeline adjusted -3 months🟡ALERT: Major lab announces compute breakthrough - Acceleration detected🟢UPDATE: AI safety protocols implemented - Timeline stable🔴NEW: AI system passes Turing test in blind study - Timeline adjusted -6 months🟡ALERT: New architecture achieves 10x efficiency - Monitoring impact🟢UPDATE: International AI governance framework adopted🔴NEW: Self-improving code optimization achieved - Timeline adjusted -4 months🟡ALERT: Quantum-AI hybrid systems demonstrated🔴NEW: AI achieves PhD-level research capability - Timeline adjusted -8 months🟢UPDATE: Compute scaling continues as predicted
🔴NEW: Model achieves 94% on reasoning benchmark - Timeline adjusted -3 months🟡ALERT: Major lab announces compute breakthrough - Acceleration detected🟢UPDATE: AI safety protocols implemented - Timeline stable🔴NEW: AI system passes Turing test in blind study - Timeline adjusted -6 months🟡ALERT: New architecture achieves 10x efficiency - Monitoring impact🟢UPDATE: International AI governance framework adopted🔴NEW: Self-improving code optimization achieved - Timeline adjusted -4 months🟡ALERT: Quantum-AI hybrid systems demonstrated🔴NEW: AI achieves PhD-level research capability - Timeline adjusted -8 months🟢UPDATE: Compute scaling continues as predicted